| Tuesday, November 09, 2004 - 12:05 am |
Ive done said research, real years ago in fact.
I follow the markets on all the free worlds , and in fact have data for 30-100 game years into the past for all products.
1. The only items that w3c adds to the market are services, and they do this irregularly. They do this only when shortaes in services become so severe that the world market(s) are in danger of collapsing permanently.
Because of the way the trade loops work, the market will shut down permanently if such shortages become sufficiencly severe.
2. The world economies are more or less controlled by c3s - computer controlled countries.
When a large shortage is created, the corporation auto-build behavior in the c3s kicks in, and the c3s begin to contrcut many corporations producing the product in shortage.
The c3s do not build corporations to maximize their profits, but in response to the shortages
This behavior frequeny results in massive shifts from demand to surplus. When a player or group of players buys many weapons, for example, there will be a massive shortage at first, and even immediate orders will not be filled. the c3s will soon start building as many corporations producing these weapons as they have the workers for, however. As soon as the players stop buying (as much), the demand will vanish and turn into a massive surplus as the new corporations offer more and more on the market.
3. Purchasing occurs in waves. Country demand tends to occur in synchronized purchase groups, meaing that there will be regular cycles for consumer goods (the things that people in the countries "consume")
Because of this, huge surpluses will turn into huge deficits, then the deficits will shrink, turn into a huge surplus, and then instant tunr into another huge deficit.
4. Players manipulte the markets (if they know how). I just bought about 600M units of oil per in one month with a single country. That is peanuts; in the past I have built up massive demand using my entire empire whenever I wanted anything cheap.
Players going for cheap goods will place these orders at 50% of market, without decreasing the prices. The products do not sell for a long, long time, until finally the game either auto-removes them (which wil create a massive, instant deficit, as the outstanding 50% orders will still exist) or the prices are reduced to 50% and both demand and supply suddenly shrink dramatically.
5. Linked supply chains are important. If Factory A making product a needs product b in its production process, and suddenly product b goes into a large shortage, product a will suddenly appear in a shortage as well. This effect cascades and can spread to corporations which need product a as well
This often happens when the countries buy their consumption goods, espceially when it is services, electric power, HTS, etc -stuff that most corporations need.
Then, the month after such purchases end, there will suddenly be a new wash of supply again...and the shortages will change into surpluses in anotehr cascade.
The idea of steady demand and supply doesnt really function in simcountry. This is a necesary conseuence of the way the trading system works.
You should have no problem surviving in any market condition if you have built diversified empire/CEO. Focusing on any singular product is a bad idea.
An old, old tactic is to focus on a linked group of products. An example would be electric power, oil, and gasoline. When the price of oil is low, the gasoline corporatiosn will get cheap supplies and make a lot of money; when the price fo gasoline is low, ditto for the electric power corporation; and if the price of oil is high leading to lower profits in the other markets, then the oil corporation will make money.
In any case, the market will give you benefits.
Focusing on Services, or indeed any one product, is a bad idea.