| Monday, May 09, 2005 - 07:41 pm |
In what I hope is the end to the rather strange UV debate. Yes UV, will pretty much screw up anything organic in high enough amounts (you leave something plastic under a UV steriliser too many times, and it will disintigrate on you), but no, even with total ozone depletion, it wouldnt reach the ground in anything like those quantities.
Even plants would have trouble however coping with even the lower levels for a long period of time, however (again), at its worst, ozone deplerion was only going to increase the natural cycle of depletion/repleneshment, never cause total destruction.
Already the danger of ozone depletion has appeared to pass. It is a dead debate.
To the debate on enviromental and human survival, all opinions expressed are just that, opinions. As a moderate in almost all things (a fence sitter to some), I find each of the arguments amusing in its assumption of certainty.
The view we are doomed ignores a repeated capacity of humanity to come up with the goods when required.
The view that the markets will inevitably find a solution because it is `in there interest` is if anything, even worse. All problems have a solution, but not all problems have an acceptable solution (your death solves the problem of your cancer).
Markets make decisions in their interests, but even long term players rarely look 10 years ahead.
Evolution has lead many creatures (most in fact) through a series of changes in response to external stimuli (each change a wonderful peace of design/adaption in itself) into a dead end. So markets have the capacity to take us through a series of logical, responsible and reasonable decisions into a place from which there is no way out.
Big Daddy asks `what are we in danger of running out of, besides fossil fuel`, problem is, at present, if we run out of fossil fuel, no other resource we have will matter.
At the moment, we only have 3 sources of energy.
1. Solar (this includes fossil fuel, which is just solar energy sucked up over millions of years)
3 Geothermal/planetary (all energy derived from the activity of the planet itself - wind/tidal/geo etc.)
Almost all the energy used over the past several hundred years comes from number 1. and almost all of that comes from the stored solar in fossil fuel.
Fossil fuel >> 2 + 3 + (1 - fossil)
Are there options,
Yes- enormous space based solar collectors is one (Dyson sphere any one?). Having the world economy (and population) collapse to a size that can be supported by availalable energy is another.
Is it possible that we will fiddle until we we are no longer able to channel the resources required to achieve our most desired outcomes - yes.
Again to Big Daddy, I am not living in a cave like a survivalist, there are not enough caves for 6 billion people, and its hard to build a space based solar collector in one to (not that I am trying now)
So all endings are possible, all options open.
No matter how often the doomsayers are wrong, one day they will be right (and they only have to be right once)
PS. It isnt Americas fault (we would have done it without them, just not so soon)